Disney Crowds - Planning for Crowds Maximizes Your Investment

Excuse me Mr. Disney Crowd Blogger, did you say January was a slow month?  This is a level 9 crowd on January 6, 2017 at Animal Kingdom.  The crowd prediction was a 6, and the level was 9.  This was the crowd in Africa at
10:30 a.m. I was at the Magic Kingdom January 6, 2016 and we walked on the rides.  Folks, this year is different.

 I thought I'd make a post about Disney crowds, and here's what I would like to report.  With the new Disney pricing incentives this year, on any given day, the crowds exist.

Having lived in the Midwest for the last 15 of the last 16 years, I have the perspective of a long distance Walt Disney World visitor who has saved up for and planned many months for the long awaited WDW visit, and having lived near WDW for the last year, I also have the perspective of the frequent local visitor.

I get really sad when I hear long distance visitors complain about how they planned their trips and now they are having to deal with crowds they didn't plan for.  I know how they feel, and I feel bad that their expectations were not met.

 I heard several people that I ran across when I was at the Magic Kingdom this last week, the week that was supposed to be the slow week in March express how frustrated they were.  My sister was with me and she was awesome.  Her saying goes, "A crowded day at Disney World is better than no day at Disney World."  But, on the ferry going over, and waiting for our baby swap at Thunder Mountain which were two times I was stationary and not trying to navigate with the heard, I heard a lot of complaining from others.

Fantasyland is always crowded in the middle of the day.  This was the mid-day level 8 crowd on Monday, March 6, 2017.  There was no foreseeable reason for this crowd.  It wasn't spring break yet, it wasn't a holiday, and it was a Monday, not a Friday, Saturday, or Sunday.

The crowds levels are different this year with the reason being that Disney did something last year to smooth out the peaks and valleys of the crowds, and all of the crowd predictor web sites that I have read from of late have been understandably inaccurate.  Disney changed their pricing to bring more people in during the slow times, and to the slower parks, and raised their pricing during the high attendance times to lower the crowds during the holidays and the weekends (which are still crazy).

They also gave incentives to the local pass holders to bring them in during the slower times.  A lady from Colorado told me last week, "You are the people we hate."  She wasn't just teasing.  She meant it.  I was talking to her son, who, while I was talking to him, we discovered that we went to the same church, and he was very talkative, glad to find me, and had asked me for a lot of advice.  Then he introduced me to her, and she was not cordial at all.  She was visibly frustrated with me, and didn't want to talk to me at all.  This long distance visitor from Parker, Colorado was not happy that her one day at Disney World with her married son and his family was one of the most crowded days of the year, and she had to put her anger somewhere.  That was me, the local annual passholder. Forget that we went to the same church.  Forget that I used to live in Parker, CO just ten minutes from where she lived.  Nope, I was the reason she was having a bad day and she did not want to talk to me. I get it.  I was in her shoes once.

As a tourinplans.com subscriber, I have been able to compare the predictions to the actuals in person, and frequently, this year they have under-predicted the crowds.   Also, I have compared my visits to dadguidetowdw.com's predictions, and they have also been wrong since the beginning of the year, but this web site, nonetheless has great ideas on dealing with the crowds as does touringplans.com.

Last year, they were a lot more accurate, and I'm guessing it's because they don't have the data to support the pricing changes.  Other prediction web sites have been grossly misleading and inaccurate. One came up on my Facebook predicting all of January and February to be slow except President's day weekend.  I had to laugh.

Moving along with the heard of people at 10:30 a.m. on Monday, 6, 2017, and still having a large crowd with me, I knew we were in trouble.  I texted my sister and said, "Make sure you bring your patience and flexibility with you to the park."  She texted back and said she had left her resort at 8:30, and still hadn't gotten in through the baggage check at Epcot yet.  She was going to spend a few minutes there taking photos of the Flower and Garden Show before coming to join us at Magic Kingdom.

My advice to anyone using any web site for crowd prediction, don't!  No, I'm just kidding.  These web sites are still useful, but don't take them as Gospel.  Use them as a guideline.  For example, if touringplans.com says that Monday is going to be a level 5 and Wednesday a level 4, no matter how high Monday actually is, Monday is still probably going to be more crowded than Wednesday.  For instance, last week, Monday, predicted to be 5 was an 8, and Wednesday, predicted to be 4 was a 7.

Touringplans.com constantly analyzes their data and tries to readjust their numbers as time goes on.
They are most likely right on predicting which day or week of the month will be more crowded, but not always accurate on the actual level.

Outside of that my advice is, don't go on the mornings of Extra Magic Hours unless you are staying at the WDW resort and can get in for those hours.  Extra Magic Evenings don't usually impact the mornings or early afternoon but will impact evening crowds, so just because Extra Magic Evenings are predicted doesn't mean the whole day will be crowded.

Get to the parks by "rope drop".  Now, this advice is used more and more, and the crowds are getting to the parks earlier and earlier, so if you think your going to get to the park by rope drop and get on the Seven Dwarfs Mine Train without having to wait less then 30 minutes....well, I haven't succeeded yet, and I have found the rope drop crowds, in general, tend to be a more anxious and rude bunch of people.

Now that we have paid our dues by going to "rope drop" and have ridden 7 Dwarfs twice with a 35 minute wait running to the attraction from rope drop, we now opt to see how many rides we can get in before 10:30 by going to Adventureland and Frontierland first where we can get in several really good attractions, i.e. Thunder Mountain, and Splash Mountain with just walking on.

The next counsel I would give is to order your favorite rides' Fast Passes 30 days or more in advance (annual passholders not staying at the resorts can do no earlier than 30 days).  Order these passes for the first one to be at 10:30,  the second one to be after 2:30 and the third around 3:30 to 4:30.

The crowds, at a level 7 were easier to swallow on Wednesday, March 8, 2017. 

This enables you to be able to feel like you are accomplishing something, riding your favorite rides in the middle of the day when the parks are crowded and hot. And, despite what you may be told, December can get up to 90 degrees.  I have experienced it.  So try not to be waiting in a line in the sun in the middle of the day.  FastPasses help you not to have to do that.

As you see, I have a gap in the FastPasses schedule.  That's because going off site in the middle of the day to either go back to your hotel for a nap or swim, or going totally off site for a lunch on the 535 or the 192, or taking advantage of Disney Dining during this time, is a really refreshing thing to do in the middle of the day to rest your legs, and get away from the heat and the crowds when they are at their worst.

Finding a quiet spot to rest and take a break is always a good idea.

As you return to the parks after 2:30, you will find yourself passing people going the other way that are exhausted and have had it, and you will in a couple hours realize that the parks are relieving their crowds and you can get around little easier.

I walk a lot, about 3 miles a day on a non-Disney day, and I have found that I have five hours of walking in me on my Disney days.  I have found that in my kids too, so figure out how much you can do in five hours, and then plan the rest of the time for non-walking activities such as swimming, napping, or sitting and soaking up the atmosphere.

By the time you finish your 3:30 FastPass you will start to see people leave the parks in droves, and by dinner time, you will be able to ride some of the attractions with less than a 30 minute wait again, and by evening, you may be able to walk on attractions even if it was a level 9 day.  This may not be true for Fantasyland, however.  It is almost always crowded anytime of the day.

Dadsguidetowdw.com has said if you get in 9 attractions in a day, you will have gotten your dollar value.  Doing this schedule we have never not been able to get our 9 attractions in, even on a 9 level day, but that includes less popular attractions like People Mover and Carousel of Progress which are great attractions, actually.

This smile isn't forced.  The People Mover is our favorite afternoon attraction.  I was really sad when they got rid of this at Disneyland, and I was really glad when I discovered they still had it a the Magic Kingdom.  We ride it everytime we go.

We also like to take a mid-afternoon rest in places like the Tiki Room, The Country Bear Jamboree, The Hall of Presidents, the Carousel of Progress, and/or Mickey's Philharmagic

Also, another way to get a more crowdless experience at the parks is to stay away from the shows in the evenings and ride the attractions during the fireworks and parades.  However, sometimes it's fun to just find a nice quiet spot and watch the fireworks and eat a snack too.

Some people, like myself, like to pride themselves in their Disney itinerary planning by planning to go the time of year when the crowds are predicted to be low.  Taking your planning skills up to the next level means planning to have your expectations dashed, and planning to be flexible .  This makes it a lot more possible to have a good time when you are down here and the crowds are higher than predicted.

Expand your planning by expecting crowds and plan your rest periods and Fast Passes accordingly, and you won't feel like you have been ripped off when you are down here, because chances are you might be surprised that the predictions were off, at least this year, especially after Pandora opens!

This crowd was almost unbearable.  This was a level 8 walking down Mainstreet during the parade prep.   Luckily, the crowd was well behaved, not rude or pushy.

You can see the crowd in front of the Magic Kingdom.  When I saw this as the ferry was docking, I knew it was going to be an interesting day.